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Gordon Brown - wasting money again on Tamiflu?

It may be possible that some from of resistance has already been established in some H1N1 strains due to a vaccine mismatch which has driven a spread of H1N1 Tamiflu resistance. This is something I have stumbled across. It was commented on in August last year by Dr Henry Niman and why I found that interesting is that it is Dr Henry Niman that was involved in start and is coordinating the Google Maps swine distribution map. Dr Niman comments that an H1N1 mismatch last year may have contributed to the dominance of the clade 2B sequence, which has subsequently led to increases in oseltamivir (Tamiflu) resistance to 100% of H1N1 isolates in South Africa and Australia. I have asked Dr Niman for a comment on this as to whether this has any bearing on the current strain or if it indeed shows a remarkable resistance of H1N1 type strains to oseltamivir, which resistance is established. I will update if he gets back to me, however I am certain he is a any busy man at the moment, it would be interesting to know though. As the ramifications of our stockpiling defense of oseltamivir may be in effect, fairly useless in a short space of time. Is this a possibility? Dr Niman's staggering comment that 100% resistance witnessed in the H1N1 starins in South Africa and Australia, definitely raises a question. 100%. Therefore, if resistance is established quickly our billions spent on Tamiflu stockpile may be down the drain. An asprin would be more effective!

It would seem that H1N1 strains have been developing resistance to Tamiflu for awhile now, Dr Niman seems to have been discussing this issue with other influenza groups and specialist for some time now. Quote for 13 January 2009, "The high level of Tamiflu resistance is not a surprise. The WHO reported that 13/14 H1N1 isolates from Japan had H274Y, and levels are approaching, or have reached, 100% in the United States, Canada, and multiple countries in Europe."

We do also have the Relenza (Zanamivir), in the anti-viral defense plan as well, which on a very quick Google search investigation has not reported a marked resistence in H1N1, as of yet.

However, the CDC itself was reporting on 10 January 2009, in its weekly flu report released Jan. 10 that since Oct. 1, 2008, 103 H1N1 virus samples collected from 25 states have been tested for resistance to the neuraminidase inhibitors oseltamivir and zanamivir. None of the viruses tested was resistant to zanamivir, but 101 (98 percent) were resistant to oseltamivir.". It seems the medical community are seeing a near 100% resistance to Tamiflu in other H1N1 strains. It seems to be common knowledge in the medical community.

Further to this, the WHO itself, in 2008 released an "update that H1N1 was starting to develop resistance to oseltamivir. Surely this raises a question for Gordon Brown and other governments? Why are they stockpiling Tamiflu? The UK this week placed an order to increase its stockpile of Tamiflu by 16 million doses to boost the stockpile for the UK to 500 million doses. H1N1 has in the past displayed 100% resistence, not 20% or 13%, 100% resistence....

In the US there are 4 approved antivirals, Tamiflu (oseltamivir), Relenza (Zanamivir), amantadine and rimantadine. It is reported that al 13 H1N1 strains are resistant to amantadine and rimantadine.

So why are we not stock piling Relenza? We have not seen a significant resistance develop in any H1N1 strains to zanamivir, surely this is the drug of choice. After all last year it was proved that H1N1 can VERY quickly develop 100% resistance to Tamiflu, a resistence that H1N1 strains have been building over the past few years.

Sometimes I wonder at the world in which I live. Is it just me or does rationality seem to have left the building? It boogles the mind.