I was going to post this as a comment on Jay Fry's ( @jayfry3 ) article on cloudcommons, but I cannot post a comment. So http://beta-www.cloudcommons.com/learn/-/asset_publisher/bY1m/blog/the-c...

The cloud is falling, says Gartner - tablets and mobility should top IT's list instead http://beta-www.cloudcommons.com/learn/-/asset_publisher/bY1m/blog/the-c...

'as Cearly put it, “the implications for IT is that the era of PC dominance with Windows as the single platform will be replaced with a post-PC era where Windows is one of a variety of environments IT will need to support.”'.

I am not sure where Mr Cearly has been, but unless I am mistaken that has been true since the advent of the commercial Internet and well before that.

Further to that I think it is fair to say that anyone who actually works in IT has been exposed to a number of operational flavours, whether that be through ADSL routers, hardware appliances or mobile phones in their career. By its very "No SPF" nature, IT has always been diversity. Proportionally not many Windows boxes ran Apache 1.3, sendmail, POP3 or php. However of the other hand most company documents were composed on Windows (and remember Novell).

The core of IT has always been disverse, it is one of the reasons for its success. Things occupanying niches. The clouds are just niches, in fact they are more. They are habitats with diverse ecologies. Whether that be AppLogic's

ADL or EC2's API or Rackspace's cloud server images or EC2's AMIs.

Functionally the ecosystems fulfil very similar roles, however the diversity protects the whole. Many clouds reduces the points of failure. Wherever there are clouds there are storms, and sometimes those storms are hurricanes.

The two opposing conclusions are already both true.

I can almost garantee that cloud computing has disappointed many it's ardent (and often fanatic) supporters. If they have been running infrastructure on a cloud for 18 months, I would be willing to bet that 90% of those architects will have been disappointed.

"it’s gathering sufficient understanding and adoption, that it’s becoming a de facto part of the way IT runs itself in multiple areas.". I would agrue it has already, it is not "becoming", it is. Especially in the SME and start-up arena.

All clouds will fail at some point. Via user error (misunderstanding) and by actual cloud infrastructure failure. Most have already, in some way or other.

Amazon writing a stripe through EBS volumes... that was a pretty MAJOR #fail.

Error is part of all systems, by universal design.

However I think at some point, some cloud is going to have a catergory 5 hurricane. A possible vector is from inside the cloud itself.

The hype around the cloud is not over-hyped. Clouds are supercool, but super-cooling can have dramatic effects on the weather.

And I think there may be something Gartner cannot see over the horizon which could be a game changer in the clouds. we just have not thought of it yet, but maybe it will be emergent, beyond our ability to predict.

Evolution tends to be emergent. It also tends to "reboot" on overt failures.

Mobile apps and tablets up next year... not hugely, not yet. They are still in the experimentally phase, early adopters and all. Polishing the interface will take a while still. We will still be writing comment posts on keyboards for a while to come.

May be sales will be up a fair bit, but most of our productivity will still be PC based for a few years to come. They have been some successful because they are in scale to us, to our dexterity and right now ALL generations are comfortable with the format. For quick on the go, mobile. For chill and check out, tablet. For creation, PC.